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09/06/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Recently red-hot lefty Wandy Rodriguez and his similarly streaking Houston teammates try to make it three straight wins when the Astros head to Wrigley Field today for the first of three consecutive games with the host Chicago Cubs.
A 31-year-old Dominican, Rodriguez was 6-11 on the season after a 4-2 loss to St. Louis on July 11, but has since won five of seven decisions over nine starts while lowering his earned run average more than a run, from 4.97 to 3.71.
The first start in that stretch came against the Cubs on July 19, when Rodriguez allowed eight hits and five runs in six innings to get the win in Houston's 11-5 rout at Wrigley. The victory moved him to 5-4 in 15 lifetime starts against Chicago.
The Astros come into this series after winning two of three against Arizona and five of six overall. Hunter Pence's three-run home run in the first inning stood up as the deciding hit as Houston won, 3-2, over the Diamondbacks Sunday at Chase Field.
Pence finished 2-for-4 and Jeff Keppinger added a hit and a run scored for the Astros.
J.A. Happ (6-2) continued his fine pitching since being acquired from Philadelphia, as he yielded two runs on six hits while walking two and striking out seven over seven frames to grab the win. Astros closer Brandon Lyon worked around a one-out double in the ninth to register his 13th save.
The Cubs counter Rodriguez with rookie right-hander Casey Coleman, a 2008 draft pick who'll start for the fourth time in his eighth major-league appearance.
The Fort Myers, FL native, a product of the fledgling program at Florida Gulf Coast University, debuted in the majors with 2 1/2 innings of relief against Milwaukee on Aug. 2. He made all seven career appearances in the month, including a 9-1 win at Washington on Aug. 23 in which he allowed three hits and a run in 6 1/3 innings.
One start since yielded a no-decision in Cincinnati, where Coleman allowed eight hits and four runs in six innings of the Cubs' 7-5 loss on Aug. 29
In 25 overall innings, Coleman has given up 27 hits and 16 runs. He has never faced the Astros.
The Cubs will be trying to bounce back from Sunday's lopsided loss to the Mets, in which Ike Davis finished a triple shy of the cycle, drove in three runs and scored three times as New York Mets dominated Chicago, 18-5, at Wrigley.
Aramis Ramirez hit a two-run homer and knocked in a total of three runs for Chicago, which saw a three-game win streak come to an end. Geovany Soto also homered in the loss.
Cubs starter Ryan Dempster (12-10) got rocked over 4 2/3 frames, giving up seven runs -- three earned -- on nine hits to suffer his second straight loss. He fanned five batters and walked four.
Houston has got the better of the Cubs for much of this season, having taken eight of 12 previous meetings between the clubs in 2010. The Astros have won four of the six matchups held at Wrigley Field as well.
<< Giants target first place as they continue road trip in Arizona
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With first place in the National League's West Division now
within their grasp, the San Francisco Giants continue a critical road trip
today with the first of three straight meetings with the Arizona Diamondbacks
from Chase F
<< Rockies hope to extend charge as they battle Reds
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) -- Don't look now, but the Colorado Rockies may about to be
putting together one of those strong September runs that has propelled them
into the postseason in years past.
After climbing back into the National League West rac
<< Villanova loses starting defensive end
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Defending FCS national champion Villanova
has lost sophomore Marlon Johnson, its only returning starter on the defensive
line, to a season-ending ACL injury.
Johnson, a defensive end, suffered the injury d
<< Phillies bring up Robertson, Worley to start Monday
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Phillies bolstered their
bullpen Monday with two additions, bringing up lefties Nate Robertson and Mike
Zagurski, and recalling Vance Worley from Triple-A Lehigh Valley to start
Monday
Cardinals to begin critical road trip with clash vs. Brewers >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Coming off a much-needed series win, the playoff-hopeful
St. Louis Cardinals know they still have a lot of work to do.
St. Louis continues that uphill battle this afternoon with the opener of a
three-game series at Miller
Santana scratched from Tuesday start >>
Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New York Mets ace Johan Santana will miss
his next scheduled start Tuesday versus Washington with a strained pectoral
muscle.
Santana was forced to leave his last assignment against the Braves Thurs
Underwhelming Madrid need special touch >>
Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - When Jose Mourinho left Inter Milan this
summer for the bright lights of the Bernabeu, he took a calculated risk. After
all, Inter had just come off a season where they won both the domestic league
and cu
Rangers scratch Lee from Tuesday start >>
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Texas Rangers have scratched lefty Cliff
Lee from his scheduled start Tuesday against the Blue Jays because of a
strained muscle in his lower back.
Lee was given an injection to deal with disc
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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